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    3 Reasons This is NOT the 2008 Real Estate Market

    3 Reasons This is NOT the 2008 Real Estate Market | MyKCM
    No one knows for sure when the next recession will occur. What is known, however, is that the upcoming economic slowdown will not be caused by a housing market crash, as was the case in 2008. There are those who disagree and are comparing today’s real estate market to the market in 2005-2006, which preceded the crash. In many ways, however, the market is very different now. Here are three suppositions being put forward by some, and why they don’t hold up.

    SUPPOSITION #1

    A critical warning sign last time was the surging gap between the growth in home prices and household income. Today, home values have also outpaced wage gains. As in 2006, a lack of affordability will kill the market.

    Counterpoint

    The “gap” between wages and home price growth has existed since 2012. If that is a sign of a recession, why didn’t we have one sometime in the last seven years? Also, a buyer’s purchasing power is MUCH GREATER today than it was thirteen years ago. The equation to determine affordability has three elements:  home prices, wages, AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. Today, the mortgage rate is about 3.5% versus 6.41% in 2006.

    SUPPOSITION #2

    In 2018, as in 2005, housing-price growth began slowing, with significant price drops occurring in some major markets. Look at Manhattan where home prices are in a “near free-fall.”

    Counterpoint

    The only major market showing true depreciation is Seattle, and it looks like home values in that city are about to reverse and start appreciating again. CoreLogic is projecting home price appreciation to reaccelerate across the country over the next twelve months.Regarding Manhattan, home prices are dropping because the city’s new “mansion tax” is sapping demand. Additionally, the new federal tax code that went into effect last year continues to impact the market, capping deductions for state and local taxes, known as SALT, at $10,000. That had the effect of making it more expensive to own homes in states like New York.

    SUPPOSITION #3

    Prices will crash because that is what happened during the last recession.

    Counterpoint

    It is true that home values sank by almost 20% during the 2008 recession. However, it is also true that in the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6%.Price is determined by supply and demand. In 2008, there was an overabundance of housing inventory (a 9-month supply). Today, housing inventory is less than half of that (a 4-month supply).

    Bottom Line

    We need to realize that today’s real estate market is nothing like the 2008 market. Therefore, when a recession occurs, it won’t resemble the last one.

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    Jeff Duneske

    With over 20 years of real estate experience, a career volume of over $250 million, over 1,000 properties sold, Jeff Duneske, broker/ owner of Duneske Real Estate Advisors at Keller Williams Advantage, has a lot to be proud of. However, his greatest source of pride is his honor: Jeff has built his business — and thrived in the industry — by instilling his clients’ trust.“ I have always said that we meet our clients at the crossroads of life and change — that we can make a difference, earn their trust and help our clients during this change.” “Knowing that I have earned the trust of over 1,000 clients and the privilege of guiding them through one of life’s largest financial transactions to achieve the American Dream is by far the greatest reward of my business.” Jeff was born and raised in Novi and earned the distinguished rank of Eagle Scout when he was 15 years old. In 1996, Jeff graduated from Novi High School and The Oakland Fire Academy and was intent on becoming a full-time firefighter. After serving as an auxiliary firefighter and EMT in Novi and Walled Lake for several years and not landing a full-time position on the force, Jeff decided to shift gears and find another professional path where he could help people and began his real estate career in 2000. Having been the #1 agent or team at various brokerages over his career, as well as the #1 team at Keller Williams Advantage and the #4 team in the Michigan-Ohio region of Keller Williams International in 2019, Jeff has certainly demonstrated his drive to reach for the sky and his commitment to his clients. “We never rest on our laurels, and we’re always improving our current systems — and implementing new systems — to boost efficiency and assure stellar service.” Jeff, who has served on the Professional Standards Committee for the past nine years, embraces a strong mindset to persistently achieve his goals without compromising his morals, standards, or ethics for anyone or any transaction. “You must uphold your standards because if you don’t uphold them, you have no standards at all.” “I run my life and my business by The Golden Rule: Treat others the way you would like to be treated.” Jeff’s noble purpose — conducting his business with the highest morals, ethics, and standards — has led him to a successful real estate career. More importantly, his ethical and moral standards have enriched his life and the lives of others in immeasurable ways … and because Jeff does not waver, he will continue to lead with purpose, honor, and great promise.

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